Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market requires judging whether an event constitutes a formal senior-level round of peace talks or diplomatic negotiations, as opposed to technical, staff-level, working-group, or deconfliction discussions, which are explicitly excluded.
Read the full assessment
This market requires judging whether an event constitutes a formal senior-level round of peace talks or diplomatic negotiations, as opposed to technical, staff-level, working-group, or deconfliction discussions, which are explicitly excluded. While indirect in-person diplomacy qualifies and representatives do not need to be in the same room, determining whether a multi-party process qualifies as the same formal diplomatic process involves subjective interpretation. Resolution relies either on official government acknowledgments or an unspecified consensus of credible media reporting, leaving the resolution decider with moderate latitude to interpret whether media accounts confirm active, authorized participation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kazem Gharibabadi will physically attend a formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kazem Gharibabadi is physically present and actively participating in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between official US and Iranian representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events must be deliberate in-person meetings concerning US-Iran relations, including indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Multi-day meetings count if attended at any part. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round, standalone staff-level meetings, remote calls, chance encounters, brief greetings, or ceremonial appearances do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the individual and the US and Iranian governments, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Kazem Gharibabadi and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·