Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on specific qualitative thresholds to define what constitutes a qualifying diplomatic round, excluding technical, staff-level, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings unless they are part of a newly convened senior-level peace-talks round.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on specific qualitative thresholds to define what constitutes a qualifying diplomatic round, excluding technical, staff-level, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings unless they are part of a newly convened senior-level peace-talks round. Deciding whether an event meets the bar of a formal senior-level round rather than a working-group or follow-on technical meeting requires interpretation. Additionally, indirect in-person diplomacy qualifies even if delegates are not in the same room, broadening the scope beyond direct bilateral summits. Resolution is determined either through official government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces judgment if reports conflict or if government disclosures lack detail on who was physically present and actively participating.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iranian diplomat Majid Takht-Ravanchi physically attends a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting or peace-talks round between the US and Iran by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Majid Takht-Ravanchi is physically present and actively participating in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between authorized senior representatives of the US and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings must be deliberate in-person events concerning US-Iran relations, including indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators where representatives do not share a room, and can be satisfied by attending any part of a multi-day round. Remote meetings, brief greetings, chance encounters, ceremonial appearances, stand-alone follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round, and lower-level technical or staff meetings do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying attendance occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the individual and the US and Iranian governments, or a consensus of credible media reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Majid Takht-Ravanchi, the US government, the Iranian government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·