Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.15¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$8.7K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market presents significant ambiguity because SpaceX is currently a private company without a public market capitalization, and the rules do not specify how private company valuations or secondary market transactions compare against public market caps. Additionally, while the title asks a yes-or-no question about SpaceX, the resolution rules state the market will resolve to the name of the company that finishes third, creating a structural contradiction for binary settlement. Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified financial database, leaving valuation methodology, currency conversion, and company ranking open to substantial decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether SpaceX will rank as the world's third-largest company by market capitalization on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to SpaceX (or Yes) if SpaceX is the third-largest company in the world by market cap as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to another named company or No if a different company holds that ranking at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Measurement date: — Market cap ranking is evaluated as of market close.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
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