Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$6.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks a simple yes-or-no style query about Tesla, but the rules state the market will resolve to whichever company holds the third-largest market cap on December 31, 2026. A reader looking only at the question might not realize the year is specifically set to 2026. Additionally, there is no specified financial data provider or standard methodology for calculating global market caps across international exchanges; instead, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if rankings are close or differ across financial data platforms.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tesla will rank as the third-largest company in the world by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla is the third-largest company globally by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if any other company holds that ranking at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Measurement date: — Market close on this date determines the third-largest company by market cap.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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