Will Gustavo Alarcón Herrera win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes a winning outcome, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes a winning outcome, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by official electoral authorities in Mexico and Guerrero if reporting is ambiguous. The deadline of December 31, 2027 provides several months after the scheduled June election for official certification and legal challenges to conclude before any default timeout clause is triggered.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gustavo Alarcón Herrera will win the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election. An interim or caretaker Governor does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gustavo Alarcón Herrera wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election, excluding any interim or caretaker governorships. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from government sources in Guerrero and Mexico—including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico—if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources of Guerrero and Mexico including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·