Will Moana be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on a specific, named official source: Google's Year in Search Global Movies list for 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on a specific, named official source: Google's Year in Search Global Movies list for 2026. The rules provide direct navigation instructions to locate the list and set clear guidelines for handling spelling variations or abbreviations. Resolution can occur as soon as Google publishes the official 2026 list, with a fallback timeout resolving to Other if Google fails to publish by March 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the movie ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → Movies. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Market explained
This market measures whether "Moana" will be the most searched movie globally on Google's Year in Search list for 2026. The resolution is based on a specific Google Trends report, which makes it unusual.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if "Moana" is ranked #1 on Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other movie is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Search terms clearly referring to "Moana" (e.g., abbreviations, alternate spellings) will count towards it. If a search term clearly refers to multiple listed terms, the alphabetically first term will be used. The resolution source is the specified list as published by Google.
Resolution source
the specified list as published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·