Will Michael be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify an official source: Google's Year in Search Global Movies ranking for 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify an official source: Google's Year in Search Global Movies ranking for 2026. The URL path, navigation, and alias-matching rules are explicitly laid out. A definitive fallback deadline is included, resolving the market to Other if Google does not publish the list by March 31, 2027. While the title uses the generic phrase this year, the rules explicitly anchor the evaluation to the 2026 release.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the movie ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → Movies. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Market explained
This market measures whether "Michael" will be the top-ranked movie on Google's global "Year in Search" list for 2026. The resolution is unusual because it relies on a specific, future-dated list from Google Trends.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if "Michael" is ranked as the #1 movie on Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026. This list is expected to be found on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, under Global → Entertainment → Movies. The market resolves based on the specified list regardless of the navigation procedure. Search terms that clearly refer to "Michael" (e.g., abbreviations, alternate spellings) will count towards it. This market resolves No if any other movie is ranked #1 on the specified list. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, the market resolves according to the term that comes first alphabetically. This market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the specified list as published by Google.
Resolution source
the specified list as published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·