Will Toy Story 5 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly identifies Google's official Year in Search Global 'Movies' list for 2026 as the sole resolving source.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly identifies Google's official Year in Search Global 'Movies' list for 2026 as the sole resolving source. It outlines the specific navigation path on Google Trends, establishes clear rules for handling spelling variations or abbreviations, and includes a tie-breaking rule if a term matches multiple candidates. A definitive cutoff date of March 31, 2027, is established with an explicit fallback resolution to 'Other' if Google fails to publish the list. The decider relies entirely on published rankings rather than discretionary judgment.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the movie ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → Movies. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Market explained
This market measures whether "Toy Story 5" will be the most searched movie globally on Google's Year in Search list for 2026. The market's resolution is unusual because it relies on a specific, future-dated Google Trends report and has a defined fallback if the report is not released.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if "Toy Story 5" is ranked #1 on Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026. This list is expected to be found on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, under Global, then Entertainment, then Movies. The market resolves No if any other movie is ranked #1 on this list. Search terms that clearly refer to a movie listed, including abbreviations or alternate spellings, will count towards that movie. If a search term clearly refers to multiple movies in the list, the alphabetically first movie will be counted. The market resolves Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the specified list as published by Google.
Resolution source
the specified list as published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·