Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official inclusion of Xiaomi (or a parent or subsidiary) on the U.S.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official inclusion of Xiaomi (or a parent or subsidiary) on the U.S. Department of Defense Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027. Participants should note several specific conditions: additions of corporate affiliates or subsidiaries qualify, and any addition counts even if it is subsequently retracted, withdrawn, or remains unenforced. While official government publications and Federal Register notices serve as primary evidence, the rules also permit resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces decider discretion. Additionally, determining what constitutes a qualifying parent or subsidiary could introduce ambiguity if complex corporate ownership structures are involved.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
13%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Market explained
This market measures whether Xiaomi (or its parent company or subsidiary) is added to the U.S. Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xiaomi, or a parent company or subsidiary of Xiaomi, is added to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The addition must appear on an updated official list, announcement, or Federal Register notice published by the U.S. Department of Defense. An addition qualifies even if unenforced, retracted, or withdrawn later. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·