Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying addition to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list published by the Department of Defense.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying addition to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list published by the Department of Defense. They explicitly note that additions of parent companies or subsidiaries count, that subsequent retractions do not invalidate a positive resolution, and that lack of enforcement does not prevent resolution to Yes. The resolution relies directly on official DoD publications and Federal Register notices with a clear deadline of June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Market explained
This market measures whether DeepSeek (or its parent or subsidiary) will be added to the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if DeepSeek, or its parent company or subsidiary, is added to the Section 1260H list of Chinese Military Companies by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The addition must be reflected in an official Department of Defense announcement, Federal Register notice, or updated list on its official website. The addition qualifies even if it is later retracted, withdrawn, or unenforced. The market resolves to No if no qualifying addition or republishing occurs by the deadline. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense.
Resolution source
Department of Defense (a.k.a. Department of War) and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·