Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the target registry as the Department of Defense Section 1260H list and establish a definitive deadline of June 30, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the target registry as the Department of Defense Section 1260H list and establish a definitive deadline of June 30, 2027. However, the scope is broader than the question alone suggests: the market will resolve positively if any parent company or subsidiary of ByteDance is listed, rather than strictly ByteDance itself. Furthermore, an addition still counts even if it is subsequently retracted, withdrawn, or unenforced. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Register notices, Department of Defense announcements, and corroborated reporting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
12%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Market explained
This market measures whether ByteDance, or any of its parent or subsidiary companies, is added to the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ByteDance, its subsidiary, or its parent company is added to the Section 1260H list by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The addition must be reflected in an official Department of Defense publication, announcement, or Federal Register notice. An addition still qualifies even if it is later retracted, withdrawn, or unenforced. The market resolves to No if no qualifying addition occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official Department of Defense information and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
U.S. Department of Defense official information and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·