Will Aleksandar Čupić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define that resolution depends on whether the named individual wins the next presidential election, explicitly covering potential early elections and runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define that resolution depends on whether the named individual wins the next presidential election, explicitly covering potential early elections and runoff rounds. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official authority—the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia—acting as a definitive backup if any ambiguity arises. A long-stop date of March 31, 2028 is provided, resolving to Other if final results remain undetermined by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
4%
chance▼ −2.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Aleksandar Čupić will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Aleksandar Čupić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by the specified deadline. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia used if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·