Will Vojislav Šešelj win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, including any runoff round, whether held early or on schedule.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, including any runoff round, whether held early or on schedule. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but provides a concrete fallback to official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if reporting is ambiguous. A clear backstop date of March 31, 2028, is provided in case results are indefinitely delayed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Vojislav Šešelj will win the next presidential election in Serbia, regardless of whether it occurs on schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vojislav Šešelj wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market will resolve based solely on official results reported by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·