Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define that resolution depends on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and potential runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define that resolution depends on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and potential runoff rounds. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official government body (the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) named as a direct fallback if reports conflict or lack clarity. A definitive deadline of March 31, 2028, ensures the market closes if election results remain unresolved. The resolution mechanics closely match the straightforward question asked.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Zdravko Ponoš will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether it is held on schedule or earlier, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zdravko Ponoš wins the next Serbian presidential election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. In cases of ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or officially the Serbian government via the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·