Will Dejan Šoškić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly accommodating early elections or runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly accommodating early elections or runoff rounds. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, it provides a clear fallback to official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if any ambiguity arises. A longstop deadline of March 31, 2028 is established, which resolves to 'Other' if the election outcome remains unknown. Overall, the rules align closely with standard election mechanics, presenting minimal surprise for participants.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Dejan Šoškić will win the next presidential election in Serbia, whether held as scheduled or called early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dejan Šoškić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·