Will Miloš Parandilović win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Serbian presidential election, including any required runoff round.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Serbian presidential election, including any required runoff round. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if reporting is ambiguous. A final timeout resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Miloš Parandilović will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Miloš Parandilović wins the next Serbian presidential election, including via a potential second round. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia as a fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·