Will Srđan Milivojević win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly including any potential second round or early election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly including any potential second round or early election. The resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official backup source—the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia—if ambiguity arises. A definitive backstop date of March 31, 2028, ensures the market will resolve to 'Other' if results remain undetermined, leaving minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Srđan Milivojević will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Srđan Milivojević wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·