Will Dragan Đilas win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and potential second-round runoffs.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and potential second-round runoffs. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official government statistical body serving as the fallback source if reporting is ambiguous. A clear cutoff date of March 31, 2028 is provided in case election results are delayed or not definitively known.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Dragan Đilas will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dragan Đilas wins the next Serbian presidential election, including via any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the definitive election results are not known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·