Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines what determines the outcome: whether the named candidate wins the next Serbian presidential election, including early elections and runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines what determines the outcome: whether the named candidate wins the next Serbian presidential election, including early elections and runoff rounds. The primary decision mechanism initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a concrete fallback to official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises. A distant longstop date of March 31, 2028, ensures ample time for certification, resolving to Other only if the outcome remains unknown by that deadline.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
3%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Đuro Macut will win the next presidential election in Serbia, regardless of whether the election occurs on schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Đuro Macut wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the definitive results of the election are not known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·