Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the outcome condition as winning the next presidential election, explicitly covering snap elections and second-round runoffs.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the outcome condition as winning the next presidential election, explicitly covering snap elections and second-round runoffs. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises. A distant fallback expiration date resolves to an alternative outcome if official results are not finalized in time, but the overall criteria directly align with straightforward election outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Miloš Vučević will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early. A resolution to "Other" occurs if election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Miloš Vučević wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·