Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and runoff rounds. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if results are ambiguous. Participants should note the timeout clause: if definitive results are not established by March 31, 2028, the market resolves to 'Other', and the rules reference multi-option candidate resolution mechanics despite the binary question phrasing.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Ivica Dačić will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early. It resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by the specified cutoff date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ivica Dačić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·