Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering potential early elections or runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering potential early elections or runoff rounds. While the primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces minor subjective judgement, it provides a clear fallback to official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises. A longstop deadline of March 31, 2028 resolves the market to 'Other' if the election outcome remains definitively unknown, which gives ample buffer beyond the expected May 2027 election date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladan Đokić will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladan Đokić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including via any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Serbian government (Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·