Will Savo Manojlović win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines its scope to cover the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff or snap election.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines its scope to cover the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff or snap election. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by an official government statistical source if ambiguity arises. The market provides a generous resolution window through March 31, 2028, which prevents early timeout complications and ensures sufficient time for official certification.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Savo Manojlović will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or called early.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Savo Manojlović wins the next Serbian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·