Will Salvador Illa be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly establish the requirements for an individual to count as the next Prime Minister: they must win a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, creating a new government.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly establish the requirements for an individual to count as the next Prime Minister: they must win a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, creating a new government. Caretaker or interim leaders without parliamentary investiture are explicitly excluded. The resolution deadline is fixed at March 31, 2028, after which the market resolves to 'Other' if no eligible candidate takes office. While official government records serve as the primary source, the rules also allow for a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary backup.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Salvador Illa will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Salvador Illa officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in that forms a new government. The market resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office meeting those conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these conditions by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·