Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
15.95¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.95%
$426.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify what constitutes taking office, requiring both an investiture vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in ceremony to form a new government. Caretaker or interim roles lacking parliamentary confirmation are explicitly excluded. The primary source relies on official Spanish government announcements, though secondary reliance on reporting consensus introduces minor decider discretion. The deadline of March 31, 2028, provides a fixed endpoint with an explicit default to Other if no qualifying government forms.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pedro Sánchez will be the next officially confirmed Prime Minister of Spain, requiring a parliamentary vote of confidence and formal swearing-in. It is unusual because it explicitly excludes interim or caretaker prime ministers who do not undergo this formal process.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pedro Sánchez officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain. To count, he must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, leading to the official formation of a new government. The market resolves No if someone other than Pedro Sánchez officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain under the same conditions. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count. The market resolves to Other if no individual officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution will be determined by official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close: — If no Prime Minister takes office by this date, the market resolves to "Other".
Resolution source
official information from the Government of Spain
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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