Will Juanma Moreno be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both an investiture vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in that forms a new government.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both an investiture vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in that forms a new government. Caretaker or interim appointments that bypass parliamentary investiture are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies on official government announcements with credible reporting as a backstop, and there is a definite expiration date of March 31, 2028, resolving to Other if no new prime minister qualifies by then.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Juanma Moreno becomes the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. It specifically excludes interim or caretaker leaders who do not win a parliamentary vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (or the named individual) if Juanma Moreno officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, having received a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to No (or another specific candidate) if a different individual meets these conditions first. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·