Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$75.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both a formal vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in ceremony that establishes a new government. The exclusion of interim or caretaker leaders who lack parliamentary confirmation is explicitly noted. Official Spanish government announcements serve as the primary decider, with reputable media reporting available as a secondary reference. The market includes a fixed end date of March 31, 2028, at which point it resolves to an alternate outcome if no new prime minister has taken office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Óscar Puente will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. To qualify, an individual must win a formal parliamentary vote of confidence and be sworn in, strictly excluding caretaker or interim leaders.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Óscar Puente is the next person to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, provided he receives a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and is formally sworn in to officially form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual satisfies these conditions first. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence does not qualify. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these requirements by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Cutoff deadline: — Deadline for a new Prime Minister to officially take office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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