Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.25¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$191.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office as Prime Minister of Spain, requiring both a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in ceremony. The criteria explicitly exclude caretaker or interim leaders who lack parliamentary investiture, preventing potential confusion during political transitions. The resolution is tied to official government records, with credible media consensus available as a secondary fallback. The multi-year timeframe until March 31, 2028, provides sufficient runway for scheduled or snap elections, with a defined fallback to Other if no qualifying investiture occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Carlos Cuerpo becomes the next Prime Minister of Spain. To qualify, the individual must receive a parliamentary vote of confidence rather than serving solely in an interim or caretaker capacity.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Carlos Cuerpo is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, after receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual meets these conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualified Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain is the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which the next Prime Minister must take office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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