Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.55¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$236.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective constitutional requirements for resolution, specifying that the individual must win an investiture vote in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in as Prime Minister. Interim or caretaker leaders without a vote of confidence are explicitly excluded, preventing edge-case disputes. Official Spanish government records serve as the primary source, with credible reporting as a backup, and a clear deadline of March 31, 2028 is defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Isabel Díaz Ayuso will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. Resolution requires both a parliamentary vote of confidence and a formal swearing-in.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Isabel Díaz Ayuso is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, requiring a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in that forms a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who lacks a parliamentary vote of confidence does not count. The market resolves to No if another qualifying individual assumes the office first. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for a new Prime Minister to officially take office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
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