Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$19.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the conditions required for a prime minister to count, requiring both a formal vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being officially sworn in, which explicitly excludes interim or caretaker arrangements. A definitive long-term deadline of March 31, 2028 is provided, with an explicit fallback to 'Other' if no new government forms by that time. Resolution is anchored in official information from the Government of Spain, with credible reporting available only as a supplementary verification mechanism.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Carles Puigdemont will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. Resolution requires a formal parliamentary vote of confidence and swearing-in, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers who lack that vote.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Carles Puigdemont officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, which requires receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these same criteria first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these conditions by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting accepted as an alternative.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline to assume office by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.