Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$16.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office as Prime Minister: passing a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. Caretaker or interim roles lacking parliamentary approval are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies on official government records or credible consensus by a fixed deadline of March 31, 2028.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Borja Sémper will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, requiring both a parliamentary confidence vote and a formal swearing-in.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Borja Sémper is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, having received a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and been formally sworn in. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves No if another individual meets these criteria first. The market resolves to Other if no such Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for the next Prime Minister to take office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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