Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$16.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the required conditions for assuming office, specifying that the individual must win an investiture vote in the Congress of Deputies and be officially sworn in to form a government. Caretaker and interim appointments without parliamentary approval are explicitly excluded. The source framework relies primarily on official government announcements from Spain, with a fallback to consensus reporting if necessary, and there is a definite cutoff date of March 31, 2028.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cuca Gamarra will be the next officially sworn-in Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. Resolution excludes any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not win a parliamentary vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Cuca Gamarra is the next person to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, requiring both a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in. The market resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office under those same conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for a new Prime Minister to officially take office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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