Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$16.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what is required for an individual to qualify as the next Prime Minister: they must win an investiture vote in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, creating a new government. Caretaker or interim leaders without a parliamentary vote of confidence are explicitly excluded, preventing ambiguity around temporary transitions. There is a precise end date of March 31, 2028, after which the market resolves to 'Other' if no new Prime Minister takes office under these conditions. The resolution relies on official Spanish government confirmations, though reporting consensus serves as a fallback.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pepa Millán will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. Resolution requires a formal parliamentary vote of confidence and swearing-in, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers who do not win such a vote.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pepa Millán officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, having won a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. It resolves to No if a different individual officially becomes the next Prime Minister under these same conditions. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not qualify. It resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these requirements by the deadline. The market is resolved using official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which the next Prime Minister must take office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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