Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
81¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 81%
$404.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the conditions required to be considered the next Prime Minister: the individual must win a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, which explicitly excludes caretakers and interim leaders. A definitive long-term deadline of March 31, 2028 is provided, resolving to an Other option if no new government forms by that time. While the rules list official government information as the primary source, they also permit a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option, introducing a modest amount of decider judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alberto Núñez Feijóo will become the next Prime Minister of Spain. Resolution requires the individual to secure a parliamentary vote of confidence and formal swearing-in, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker leaders who lack that vote.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, having received a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and been formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these same conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Spain, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for a new Prime Minister to take office before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.