Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$24K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both a successful investiture vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and a formal swearing-in ceremony. Caretaker or interim roles without a parliamentary vote are explicitly excluded, avoiding common ambiguities around temporary transitions. Resolution is tied directly to official Spanish government records, with a clear fallback deadline and outcome if no new prime minister takes office before March 31, 2028.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Miguel Tellado will become the next Prime Minister of Spain. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not qualify unless they secure a formal parliamentary vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Miguel Tellado officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, he must win a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under those same conditions first. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who lacks a parliamentary vote of confidence does not count. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for the next Prime Minister to officially take office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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