Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide an exceptionally clear and objective resolution mechanism.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide an exceptionally clear and objective resolution mechanism. Resolution relies directly on specific data tables from named box office tracking websites, primarily The Numbers with Box Office Mojo as a clearly defined backup. The metric is explicitly defined as the final opening week figure, with explicit handling for ties via alphabetical order, explicit fallback rules if final figures are delayed past January 31, 2027, and clear provisions for early resolution to 'No' when mathematically eliminated. Potential ambiguities regarding domestic geographic definitions are preemptively addressed, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or administrative discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic opening week gross among all movies in 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening week figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening week figure in the "Weekly Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of that movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekly" figure for its first week on the "Domestic Weekly" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used. Movies will be ranked by domestic opening week gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking. This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. A listed movie may resolve to "No" as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place. If neither source has a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's figure will be the one The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the one Box Office Mojo reports at that time. A movie for which neither source reports any figure by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dune: Messiah achieves the highest domestic opening week box office gross among all movies released in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dune: Messiah ranks first in domestic opening week gross among all 2026 movies. It resolves to No if another movie finishes in first place, or as soon as finalized figures show Dune: Messiah cannot take first place. Ties are broken by alphabetical order of the movie titles. Movies without reported figures by the deadline are excluded. Resolution relies primarily on final opening week figures from The Numbers, with Box Office Mojo serving as the secondary fallback source. Final resolution occurs as soon as final figures are available and no later than January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The Numbers (primary) and Box Office Mojo (fallback)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·