Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a clear, objective mechanism for determining the outcome.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a clear, objective mechanism for determining the outcome. Resolution relies on specific, named box office databases with a strict order of precedence (The Numbers, followed by Box Office Mojo). Precise tables and tabs are specified, and a definitive cutoff date of January 31, 2027, is provided along with fallback rules if final figures are delayed. An explicit tiebreaker by alphabetical order is defined. The resolution criteria leave virtually no room for subjective judgment.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic opening week gross among all movies in 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening week figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening week figure in the "Weekly Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of that movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekly" figure for its first week on the "Domestic Weekly" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used. Movies will be ranked by domestic opening week gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking. This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. A listed movie may resolve to "No" as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place. If neither source has a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's figure will be the one The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the one Box Office Mojo reports at that time. A movie for which neither source reports any figure by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" achieves the highest domestic opening week box office gross among all movies released in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" finishes in 1st place for the highest domestic opening week gross in 2026. It resolves to No if another movie achieves a higher domestic opening week gross, or as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place. Tied figures are broken by alphabetical order of the movie titles. The primary source is the final figure on The Numbers' "Weekly Box Office Performance" table. The secondary source is Box Office Mojo's "Domestic Weekly" tab if final data is missing from the primary source by the deadline. If neither source provides a final figure by January 31, 2027, the latest available reported figure from The Numbers (or fallback to Box Office Mojo) is used. Movies lacking any reported figure by that date are excluded entirely.
Resolution source
The Numbers (with Box Office Mojo as fallback)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·