Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
1 live outcome · highest priced: Joint List at 4% · first close Jun 30, 2027 · $62.4K total volume
About this event
This event tracks which political parties or electoral lists will participate in the next Israeli government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. Each market corresponds to a specific party and evaluates whether it secures ministerial representation in the new government.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of individual binary markets for different political parties. Because a coalition government can comprise multiple political factions holding ministerial posts, more than one market in this event can resolve Yes simultaneously.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if its specified party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Inclusion requires holding at least one Minister post (including Prime Minister); outside support or confidence-and-supply agreements without a minister do not qualify. A government is considered formed once approved by the newly elected Knesset in a vote of confidence and formally in office. If no government forms or results remain unconfirmed by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to No if no government has formed or results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset used in cases of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joint List | 4% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Blue and White | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Likud | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Shas | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| United Torah Judaism | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| RZP-Zehut | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Otzma Yehudit | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Together | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| The Democrats | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yashar | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| New Economic Party / The Reservists | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Ra'am | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Noam | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Amcha Yisrael | — | — | Not rated | — |