Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?
Current price
2.5¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.5%
$456.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly defines what qualifies as being part of the government, specifically requiring at least one minister post in the first government formed following a vote of confidence in the 26th Knesset. Explicit exclusions are provided for outside support or confidence-and-supply agreements without ministerial posts. A clear fallback date of June 30, 2027 resolves the market to No if no government takes office. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting with official Knesset and Israeli government records as a backstop in ambiguous cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Blue and White party will be part of the first Israeli government formed after the scheduled 2026 Knesset election. It requires holding an official ministerial post rather than offering outside support.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Blue and White is included in the first Israeli government formed following the 2026 Knesset election by holding at least one Minister post, including Prime Minister, upon the government being approved in a Knesset vote of confidence and formally taking office. Outside support agreements without ministerial posts do not qualify. The market resolves to No if the party is not included, if no government is formed, or if definitive results are not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset used in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time by which a government must be formed (11:59 PM ET)
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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