Will the Joint List be in the next Israeli government?
Current price
4.35¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.35%
$3.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes being part of the government: holding at least one minister post in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset election that passes a vote of confidence. Outside support arrangements without ministers explicitly do not count. There is a clear fallback deadline of June 30, 2027, resolving to No if no government forms in time. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official government and Knesset records serving as the tie-breaker for any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Joint List will be part of the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. It requires the party to hold at least one ministerial post, excluding outside support arrangements.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Joint List is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election by having at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister, once the government is approved in a vote of confidence and formally takes office. Parties providing only confidence-and-supply or parliamentary support without a ministerial post do not count. The market resolves to No if the party is not included, if no government is formed, or if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled Knesset election: — Elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled for this date.
- Market resolution deadline: — Resolves to No if no government has formed or results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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