VA-05 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: John McGuire (R) at 70% (−2 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $130.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Virginia's 5th congressional district (VA-05), measuring which political party or candidate will win the seat.
How the outcomes relate
Markets correspond to political parties competing for a single congressional seat. Because only one candidate wins the election, only one market corresponding to the winning party can resolve Yes, while the others resolve No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if the candidate affiliated with that specific political party wins the VA-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time elections are conclusively called, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if unaffiliated. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results used if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGuire (R) | 70% | ▼ 2 | Low | High | |
| Tom Perriello (D) | 31% | ▲ 1 | Low | High |