Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Current price
69.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69.5%
$61.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 House race for Virginia's 5th congressional district. The rules clearly state how candidate party affiliation is assigned, including handling independents based on their intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible media reporting, but provides a definitive fallback to official election results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The criteria align directly with standard election outcomes, leaving minimal room for unexpected edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Virginia's 5th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the VA-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if unaffiliated, at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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