Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Current price
29.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$66.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market tracks the winner of the Virginia 5th Congressional District race in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how independent or third-party candidates are classified by looking at their ballot designation or their stated caucus intent once all House races are called. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving it to the decider to determine when a consensus exists across news outlets, with official Federal Election Commission certified data serving as a backup if reporting remains ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives election for Virginia's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot affiliation are assigned based on their declared intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the VA-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. A candidate without a ballot affiliation counts as a Democrat if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity remains, the market resolves solely based on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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