Texas Senate Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: James Talarico (D) at 63% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $4.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. Markets evaluate which political party or specific candidate wins the race, including any potential run-offs.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a political party's nominee or candidate winning the election. Because there is only one winning party in the election, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if its designated party's nominee wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, and No otherwise. A candidate represents a party if they are the party's official nominee; independent candidates are not included under major party options. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or alternatively based on official certification.
Key dates
- Midterm election year: The election year covering the Texas U.S. Senate race and any run-offs. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if consensus is not reached)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 63% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 38% | ±0 | Low | High |