Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Current price
61.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 61.5%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the outcome based on the official party nominees and explicitly include any potential run-offs. Independent candidates are explicitly excluded from representing the Democratic or Republican options, and procedures for nominee replacements prior to election day are clearly specified. Resolution relies on three designated major news networks reaching a unanimous call, with a definitive fallback to official election certification if they do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, including any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if affiliated with a party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic or Republican options regardless of party affiliation. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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