Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Current price
38.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38.5%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the election for a specific party, explicitly stating that candidates must be the official nominee and clarifying that independent candidates do not qualify under major party options. The resolution criteria are objective and tiered: resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with a fallback to official state certification if the networks do not reach a consensus. Potential contingencies such as runoffs and nominee replacements before election day are explicitly accounted for without ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if the nominee of another party or an independent candidate wins. A candidate represents a party if they are the official nominee, and independent candidates are not included under the Democratic or Republican options. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, resolution is decided by the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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