Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 72% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $300.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will hold an official in-person diplomatic meeting by specific milestone dates. Each market measures whether qualifying negotiations or talks occur before its stated deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of timeline milestones for the same underlying event. Because the markets measure whether a meeting occurs 'by' progressively later deadlines, if an earlier market resolves Yes, all subsequent later markets will also resolve Yes. More than one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if an authorized, deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine takes place by 11:59 PM ET on its specified date. Meetings through designated authorized mediators qualify, but must be in-person (remote calls do not qualify) and publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Brief greetings or chance encounters do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- October 31 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
- December 31 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 72% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| November 30 | 54% | ▲ 7 | Med | Low | |
| October 31 | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| October 15 | — | — | Not rated | — |