Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Current price
50.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 50.5%
$34K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on determining whether an interaction qualifies as an official diplomatic meeting rather than an informal or chance encounter. The rules permit indirect diplomacy conducted through mediators or facilitators, which leaves room for interpretation regarding what constitutes an indirect in-person meeting versus backchannel communications. Because there is no specific authoritative agency or registry designated to verify this, the market relies on government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting, requiring judgment to establish whether media agreement exists.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine hold an official diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026. Resolution allows for indirect in-person meetings conducted via authorized mediators or interlocutors.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if representatives of Russia and Ukraine hold a deliberate, in-person diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The representatives must act in an official capacity and be authorized to negotiate on bilateral relations. Indirect in-person meetings through authorized mediators qualify, and the meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media consensus. Brief greetings, chance encounters, remote meetings, and phone calls do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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