PA-16 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Mike Kelly (R) at 96% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $87.8K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (PA-16). Its markets measure which political party or candidate will win the seat.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains markets representing different political parties or candidates competing for a single congressional seat. Because only one candidate can win the seat, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the specified political party wins the PA-16 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kelly (R) | 96% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Justin Wagner (D) | 4% | ±0 | Med | High |