Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?
Current price
96.2¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.2%
$55K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party outcome of the 2026 PA-16 U.S. House race. The criteria are clearly stated, covering ballot affiliation as well as explicit rules for third-party or independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-16 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if unaffiliated on the ballot. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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